Talent development is absolutely necessary in the lives of gifted and talented children and adolescents, and talent development often continues into adulthood and throughout the lifespan. Because early experiences and the honing of skills can affect the trajectory of talent, many families and educators focus on these initial experiences. Children take lessons, play on sports teams and in clubs, join academic clubs or endeavors, find mentors and mentorships, and find their “niche” early in life. Their talents are hothoused and grow exponentially.
Other individuals find their passion much later in life. As children, they may sample a wide variety of activities, but not commit totally to one until much later. Additionally, they may come from families who do not have the time or resources to support high level talent development. Yet, as they age, they may hone in on a passion and pursue it with fierce dedication, yielding amazing results.
If you are like me and wonder about which group, the early budders or the late bloomers eventually reach eminence, you may find this article,
Fanfare for the Common Man: Why Child Prodigies Rarely Become Elite Performers in the January 17, 2026
Economist magazine very interesting.
The study, led by Arne Güllich, a sports scientist at the German University Kaiserslautern-Landau, crunched data surrounding over 34,000 elite performers in many fields – including sports, chess, classical music, and academia. The conventional wisdom has been that we should find talent early in all of these fields, and drill that talent into excellence. However, more recent studies have questioned this. Güllich’s team found, instead, that early performance was not a reliable predictor of adult outcomes, and this finding propelled them to study other fields of endeavor. Using specific methods of data collection in each field, a reliable pattern emerged…“in every field, elite youth performers and elite adults were almost entirely separate groups. Around 90% of superstar adults had not been superstars as children, while only 10% of top-level kids had gone on to become exceptional adults. It is not just that exceptional performance in childhood did not predict exceptional performance as an adult. The two were actually negatively correlated.”
In further examining the data and communicating with the subjects, the researchers found that adult superstars approached their field much differently than child superstars. Adult superstars were much more likely to maintain interests besides the one they excelled in. However, once they found their “forte” and began to specialize, they had much better “training efficiency” (a sports term, though it applied to other areas). This finding applied to all areas – sports, music, and academia. Initially the researchers were confounded by this finding, but postulated three different reasons for it:
- The first was “search and match” – the idea that having a broad range of interests, but waiting to specialize gives a person the best chance to find the field best suited to their talent/s.
- The second was “enhanced learning” – the idea that learning how to learn is a valuable skill – and that a good way to hone this skill is to pursue many different things, and different types of learning. This can pave the way for eventual eminence in the field of choice.
- The final reason was the “limited risk hypothesis” – a fancy way of saying that avoiding hothousing young talent may reduce eventual burnout.
Güllich and his team realize that much more research is needed, especially to extend it to other fields of endeavor. They are not discounting the importance of finding talent young and encouraging its development, but they are interested in conditions that support eminence in adulthood. Their research, they believe, may help us rethink some of our preconceived notions about talent development and eminence.
I found this article highly interesting, especially as I think about parenting and educating gifted children and adolescents. I am still pondering the research and what it could mean for our field. How about you?
As always, I welcome your thoughts. Together we grow.
- Jackie Drummer, Past President and Current Board Advisor to WATG
Thank you to Esther Vazquez of the Appleton School District for her translation of this article for our Spanish-speaking educators and families.
